COVID-19: More Deaths in Vaxxed Persons? Simpson’s Paradox

 December 8, 2021

I will fix this formatting mess as soon as the AAPS posts this article–sorry.

 

 COVID-19: More Deaths in Vaxxed Persons?

 

         Are you confused about claims about death rates in vaxxed vs. unvaxxed?

        The chart that I posted previously, which showed that all-cause mortality is twice as high in persons receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, got more than a million hits. And a storm of criticism. As former New York Times reporter and science writer Alex Berenson, who first posted the chart, acknowledged, he (and I) fell into a common statistical trap called Simpson’s Paradox: Conclusions derived from the whole group may be the opposite of those reached from a more detailed analysis. That’s because of “confounders”—overlooked variables that can influence both supposed cause and supposed effect.

        Are there differences between 10-year-olds and 59-year-olds who die, other than COVID vaccination status? Huge differences. So why the age range of 10–59 in the table that we used? The Office of National Statistics (ONS), an official agency of government in the UK, used it. Ask them why.

        The chart attracted so much interest and fury because it contradicts the narrative that COVID vaccination protects you from death. A recently published NPR article “Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame,” which is even quoted by Breitbart, proclaims that residents of counties that voted heavily for Trump were 2.7 times as likely to die of COVID-19 (NOT 2.7 times more likely to die of something) than those that went for Biden. Trump voters are more likely to be unvaccinated, they say. These authors assume that “correlation reflects causation”—a blatant contradiction of the most basic tenet of statistics. They make no attempt to correct for confounders or bias, errors beyond the mere Simpson Paradox. And yet there is no avalanche of criticism this time.

(I have had to omit a section because the computer won’t let me publish the graph.)

        

        So, what can we conclude from the statistics? First, proceed with caution. We need teams of expert, independent statisticians with access to ALL the raw data. As one expert put it: The validity of the statistics depends on the validity of the data.

        Is death “from” (which brings greater pay to hospital) or “with” COVID (say a positive test in a car crash victim)? Is the patient “vaccinated” (had last shot more than 2 weeks before diagnosis) or “unvaccinated” (hasn’t received all the shots more than 2 weeks prior to diagnosis and before the expiration date)? Without knowing these things, we cannot reach valid conclusions.

        Moreover, it is impossible to know long-term effects now—without having a time machine.

        Important questions all should ask:

·         How many patients, especially children, are experiencing heart damage? How many have been checked, as with troponin levels or the PULS test, for asymptomatic myocarditis? 

·         Have fertility clinics been surveyed? Is the statement that vaccinated sperm donors are being rejected because “their swimmers aren’t swimming” a mere unsupported rumor or anecdote? The CDC says there is “no evidence “ for a problem, citing a study of only 45 men. 

·         Are pathologists seeing more suddenly appearing new or recurrent cancers in vaccinated persons, or is this just an “outlier” observation by a few patients or pathologists? 

·         How frequent is vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT), which can cause bleeding and clotting, with strokes and other serious problems, and how should we deal with it?

 

        Each person has a fundamental human right to decline an injection and to receive an honest account of known and unknown risks.

 

Jane Orient, M.D., Executive Director, Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, jane@aapsonline.org

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Anonymous
Anonymous
6 months ago

Remember all of the American flag waving Hong Kong patriots days before the outbreak? Then the Pandemic strikes and with it fake videos of poor Chinese quivering and convulsing in the streets foaming at the mouth create shear panic as the world watched. Magically days later the same type of videos start coming from Iran, more panic, more fear. All coincidentally at the exact instant Trump is destroying China with tariffs and trade negotiations and Iran with sanctions and other punitive measures.

Yet no where else on earth were people convulsing and dropping dead in the streets but fake news manipulated video of the sick and dieing In Italian emergency rooms helped spread more fear. In America corrupt governors like Cuomo, Fox, Whitmer and others took covid positive patients that belonged in hospital quarantine into retirement and old folks homes with the most vulnerable immuno compromised elderly.

The death toll rose and positive cases went through the roof because of a PCR test with the testing cycles set at a sensitivity level where as tropical fruit, motor oil and farm animals tested positive. All to save China, Destroy MAGA and usher in the dreams of megalomaniacs. Bill gates vaccine induced depopulation, Karl Klaus great reset, George Soros communist inspired one world government and other nightmarish plans all running like a Swiss watch because of a bowl of bat soup that never existed. The world got had!

Anonymous
Anonymous
6 months ago

Covid will pose threat to UK for next five years, experts warn | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-covid-experts-omicron-five-years-b1969750.html

Top virologists frightening warnings about covid shots ignored by governments & media. | The Truth is Where?
https://thetruthiswhere.wordpress.com/2021/10/17/top-virologists-frightening-warnings-about-covid-shots-ignored-by-governments-media/

PERMANENT HEART DAMAGE and DISABILITY FOUND IN 62% of mRNA VAXXED PATIENTS | SOTN: Alternative News, Analysis & Commentary
https://stateofthenation.co/?p=73931

Anonymous
Anonymous
6 months ago

Vaccine Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (VAIDS): ‘We should anticipate seeing this immune erosion more widely’, say America’s Frontline Doctors: COVID vaccines are not traditional vaccines. Rather, they cause cells to reproduce one portion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the spike protein. The vaccines thus induce the body to create spike proteins. A person only creates antibodies against this one limited portion (the spike protein) of the virus. This has several downstream deleterious effects.

First, these vaccines “mis-train” the immune system to recognize only a small part of the virus (the spike protein). Variants that differ, even slightly, in this protein are able to escape the narrow spectrum of antibodies created by the vaccines.

Second, the vaccines create “vaccine addicts,” meaning persons become dependent upon regular booster shots, because they have been “vaccinated” only against a tiny portion of a mutating virus. Australian Health Minister Dr. Kerry Chant has stated that COVID will be with us forever and people will “have to get used to” taking endless vaccines. “This will be a regular cycle of vaccination and revaccination.”

Third, the vaccines do not prevent infection in the nose and upper airways, and vaccinated individuals have been shown to have much higher viral loads in these regions. This leads to the vaccinated becoming “super-spreaders” as they carry extremely high viral loads.

Anonymous
Anonymous
6 months ago

COVID Fact-Check: "ICUs Are Filled With The Unvaccinated"?

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/covid-fact-check-icus-are-filled-unvaccinated

Unknown
Unknown
6 months ago
Unknown
Unknown
6 months ago

Also, RFK using the same agency data reports this with the following reference:
"The UK government’s latest Office for National Statistics report on mortality rates by COVID vaccination status shows that for age-adjusted mortality rate, the death rate by October 2021 was higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated."
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1018547/Technical_Briefing_23_21_09_16.pdf

Paul Zarembka
Paul Zarembka
6 months ago

Jane Orient's response entirely misses the main point. There were MANY MORE all-cause deaths in the 60-69, 70-79, and 80+ age groups and they were what she should have posted in the first place. Using the same methodology she used provides the opposite conclusion that she drew for the 10-59 age group, even forgetting about Simpson's paradox. I posted this reply already back when the article was originally posted here.

So, it is appropriate to ask why Orient analyzed ONLY the 10-59 group data. Because it fitted her political position, but not the science?

Anonymous
Anonymous
6 months ago

Anecdotal, but one woman I know that beat breast cancer has it again after being vaxxed. And a sister-in-law that had 3 melanoma removed in the past has had more removed, twice!, since being vaxxed. Colon cancer runs in my family and I’ve had negative colonoscopies over the last 20 years so I am avoiding the vaccines since there may be a chance that they allow, or promote, cancer growth.

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