The case of the vanishing pandemic: Deadly bird flu flies the coop in the US/ Ars Technica

Remember when we kept on hearing that the next big disaster was going to be avian (bird) flu?  Well, bird flu petered out and instead of jumping to humans jumped into a black hole.  The lack of flu vaccinations for farmed chickens and ducks in North America may be key.  The following excerpts come from Ars Technica :

  • The case of the vanishing pandemic: Deadly bird flu
    flies the coop in the US
  • Scientists puzzled by disappearance, but think lack of vaccination may
    be key.

November of 2014, a highly pathogenic strain of bird flu derived from Eurasia
called H5N2 popped up in North America—in a Canadian turkey farm east of
Vancouver, to be exact. From there, the virus quickly spread and mutated into
new varieties, including H5N1, fanning fears it would vault to humans and cause
a deadly pandemic. By March of 2015, it and its kin had swooped into 15 US
states, causing 248 outbreaks in domestic birds and $5 billion worth of damages
to poultry operations.
it vanished.

a controversial twist, it may mean that bird vaccines, which aren’t used in the
US, are boosting potential pandemic flu viruses in other places of the world.

and his team didn’t find any of the high-pathogenic H5N2 viruses in the wild US
birds, nor any of the virus’ hybrid offspring… 
water fowl in the US had not tested positive for a highly pathogenic
H5N-something virus once in the 43 years prior to the outbreak.

hypothesizes that the garden-variety flu viruses essentially elbow out the
highly pathogenic ones. So, when those nasty varieties move into wild bird
populations, they don’t stay long.

if Webster is right, it raises more questions about why and how some places,
particularly in Asia, continually see the spread and maintenance of those
highly pathogenic flu viruses in wild birds. And this is where vaccines
come in to Webster’s hypothesis.

vaccines for domestic birds don’t always completely block the virus. In a small
number of vaccinated birds, highly pathogenic flu viruses can still get a foot
in the door and cause an infection. But those infections are mild, more like
seasonal flus—unnoticeable to poultry farmers and perhaps even the bird.
However, those domestic birds will still poop and shed massive amounts of
highly pathogenic viruses. And those viruses can then continually be picked up
by wild birds.

many places in Asia, poultry farmers clamor for vaccinations. But, in the US
and Europe, which don’t see the same levels of highly pathogenic viruses,
vaccines aren’t regularly used.

the US Department of Agriculture adopted a system of monitoring, quarantining,
and culling.  It’s expensive, Webster
noted, but it may be the best way to squash a potential pandemic.

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6 years ago

Hi, Dr. Nass. I just wanted you to know that I (and likely others) are still reading your blog. Last you and I spoke, I was dealing with a federal whistleblower situation, and that situation is still not yet fully resolved (though the merits are almost all in my favor; now we get to see if the system and process is as well).

Thanks again for all your work.

With regard to various bird flu, I remember 10-15 years ago when they said it's not a question of if, but when, a major global bird flu pandemic devastates the world. Yawn. So much fear porn on the part of the global medical/public health system, so little time.

Meryl Nass, M.D.
Meryl Nass, M.D.
6 years ago

Agree. I recently learned (I can be very slow on the uptake) that a major reason we are exhorted to get yearly flu shots is to support an infrastructure that could produce vaccines quickly were a major flu pandemic to occur. Because the evidence to show significant public health benefit is lacking.

Good luck!

6 years ago

Maybe a bit slow…but the same reasons that the military and petrochemical industries went into making food and medicine after the great wars of the early 20th century.

But yes, those vaccines are lacking efficacy and good research methodology to consistently demonstrate efficacy, safety, and especially necessity.

I recall a time when the pharmaceutical companies didn't want to make vaccines because they weren't profitable. Now they profitable with an entire population for a market.

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